Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
